2013 Vol. 77(1) 21-35
Editor:
John A. Palmer, Ph.D.
Copyright:
Parapsychology Press
Citation
Kennedy, E. J. (2013). Article. Can Parapsychology Move Beyond the Controversies of Retrospective Meta-Analyses? Journal of Parapsychology, 77(1), 21-35.
Article
Can Parapsychology Move Beyond the Controversies of Retrospective Meta-Analyses?
J. E. Kennedy
Retrospective meta-analyses are post hoc analyses that have not been effective at resolving scientific controversies, particularly when based on substantially underpowered experiments. Evaluations of moderating factors, including study flaws, small-study effects, and other sources of heterogeneity, do not neutralize confounding as in a well-designed experiment and cannot fully compensate for weaknesses in the original experiments. A group of welldesigned experiments with adequate power and reliable results is needed for convincing evidence for a controversial
effect. The widely recommended standard for experimental research is adequate power to obtain significant results on at least 80% of confirmatory experiments. Meta-analyses in parapsychology typically have found that 20% to 33% of studies with good methodology obtained significant results. Power analysis during experimental design is needed
to achieve much better replication rates. Meta-analyses of RNG studies have consistently found that z value does not increase with samples size—which is contrary to statistical theory and has been and will be interpreted as an indication of methodological problems. This anomalous property and other sources of heterogeneity for parapsychological results must be addressed. Challenging topics such as experimenter effects, goal-oriented psi, and capricious psimissing can no longer be ignored in research syntheses.
Keywords:
power analysis, meta-analysis, experimenter effects, heterogeneity, synthesis-generated evidence