Citation

The use of Bayesian analysis and debates involving Bayesian analysis are increasing for controversial areas of research such as parapsychology. This paper conceptually describes the philosophical and modeling differences between Bayesian and classical analyses, and the practical implications of these differences. Widely accepted statistical conventions have not yet been established for Bayesian analysis in scientific research. The recommendations from the FDA guidance on using Bayesian methods are appropriate for confirmatory experiments. This guidance recommends that the study design and protocol include (a) specification of the prior probabilities and models that will be used, (b) specification of the criteria that will be considered acceptable evidence, (c) operating characteristics for the probability of Type I error and power of the analysis, and (d) an estimate of the relative roles of prior probability versus the data from the current experiment in producing the final results. Both classical and Bayesian methods are valid when properly applied with confirmatory methodology that includes prespecification of statistical methods, and prospective evaluations of inferential errors and power. Evaluations of inferential errors and power measure the validity of a planned hypothesis test, including Bayesian analysis. Unfortunately, the use of confirmatory methodology has been rare in psychology and parapsychology.